22 Jun 2024
If for any reason there would be any obstacle for execution of JCPOA and its execution be postponed or encountered with blocks, not only hopelessness and concern atmosphere would govern Iranian society, but a distrust atmosphere would be created between Iran and western countries especially the United States and great European countries and a huge block would be created in the way of economic exchanges and cooperation between Iran and western countries and this gap wouldnt be easily treated and repaired.

Now by considering all hopes made among western countries and the Hope & Wisdom Government in order to completely and timely perform the JCPOA, if for any reason there would be any obstacle in execution of JCPOA and it would be postponed or faces a block, not only hopelessness and concern would govern Iranian society, but there would a distrust be created between Iran and western countries such as the United States and great European Countries and a huge block would be created in the way of economic exchanges and cooperation between Iran and western countries and this gap wouldnt be easily treated and repaired.

Mohammad Reza Sabzalipour, president of Iran World Trade Center and head of policy-making council of resistive economy and private sector through his statements, besides analyzing economic situation of Iran, considered JCPOA situation and said: "All Iranian people and even people of the world was waiting for the day of execution of JCPOA. All Iranian people want that as it is promised, JCPOA would be executed timely and at the same time, most important and effective sanctions be cancelled.

He also added that: "Waiting for execution of nuclear agreement is in a situation that economic and political atmosphere of Iran, despite the pressures, is under tension of this day for several years. This is while, either supporters or opponents of nuclear negotiations are waiting for JCPOA execution, so that supporters of this plan seek to observe result of their optimism and long-term waiting since they believe that most political and economic problems of Iran would be healed by execution of JCPOA, but opponents and critics of nuclear negotiations are waiting for its execution so that by observing lack of solution of economic problems of the country, prove their rightfulness and show that the 11th government has just been optimist.

Alipour Stated that: "Execution of JCPOA by parties to nuclear agreement, can be considered as a start point for expansion of interaction between Iran and western countries, and on the other hand, lack of its execution to the same extent can cause a huge block between Iran and western world and increase distrustful atmosphere. Since initiation of economic fight of western countries against Iran and imposing
sanctions on Iran, Iran's economy underwent a crisis and it aimed the main source of Iran's income which oil export. Financial corruption in body of the governmental and pseudo-governmental economy through imposing these sanctions increased and welfare of a different levels of people reached its lowest level as a result of intense economic downturn.

Though execution of JCPOA and cancellation of sanctions would not solely solve economic problems of Iran and Iran's economy in order to develop needs "structural amendments", execution of JCPOA would have positive effects and advantages for economy of our country.

For example:

* According to reports of the World Bank, reduction in exchange costs in respect of value, would gain
benefits equal to 15 billion dollars for Iran's economy.
* Relative improvement in welfare of families.
* Increase in imports of capital goods and finally increase in foreign investments in different fields such
as industry, service, installation, etc.
* Increase in industrial exports and non-oil exports up to 50 billion dollars.
* Increase in foreign investments at least up to 5 billion dollars.
* Increase in savings of National Development Fund and irrevocable payment of foreign currency
payments to industry and mine sector of the country.
* More that 10% decrease in cost of finance transmission.
* Release of tens of billions of dollars of blocked assets of Iran and oil incomes.
* Possibility of receiving low-interest loans from World Bank.
* Growth of production and increase in oil, gas, and petrochemical products export to international
markets.
* Possibility of renewing ship fleet and facilitation of passenger and cargo transportation.
* Improvement of employment index through increase in domestic and foreign investment.
* Cancellation of prohibition of buying passenger airplanes and possibility of renewing airplane fleet of
the country and improving safety of flights.
* Cancellation of forbiddance for cooperation of American companies with Iran in carpet and food
product business.
* Cancellation of sanction on gold and valuable metals trading.
* Initiation of industrial and trade cooperation of most western countries with Iranian parties especially countries which have sent economic boards before execution of JCPOA and have conducted primary negotiations.

Head of policy-making council of resistive economy and private sector, by mentioning to fate of JCPOA stated that: "We spoke about cancellation or non-cancellation of sanctions, but what people and economic active parties want to know is that will all sanctions be cancelled in the way of execution of JCPOA or not? This is while execution of JCPOA in its nature is up to a great extent doubted, so that I believe that still it is probable that it wouldnt be executed!! Since according to conditions I mentioned before about cancellation of sanctions, first Iran should perform a series of actions and then after confirmation of agency inspectors, a number of sanctions might be cancelled or suspended!! It should be noted that despite executive steps of Iran, unfortunately none of the sanctions are cancelled yet!!"
He continued that: "Now, considering all hopes between Iran and western countries for timely executionof JCPOA, if for any reason there would be any obstacle for execution of JCPOA and its execution be postponed or encountered with blocks, not only hopelessness and concern atmosphere would govern Iranian society, but a distrust atmosphere would be created between Iran and western countries
especially the United States and great European countries and a huge block would be created in the way of economic exchanges and cooperation between Iran and western countries and this gap wouldnt be easily treated and repaired.

At the end, president of Iran World Trade Center stated that: "Gap between economy of Iran and western countries and blocks in the way of cooperation of Iranian companies and American and European companies and investors, not only would completely terminate Iranian economy, but it would change its path of activity and its movement towards survival and development. Hence, the path of foreign exchanges and cooperation of economic active parties and Iranian industries would be changed from east and west side and would guide economy of Iran under domination of China and Russia!! In fact, non-execution of JCPOA would make economy of Iran as more Ru-Chinese (Russian-Chinese), since during the past 10 to 12 years, countries including Russia and China, and India had the highest economic cooperation with Iran and besides filling role of western countries, they had dominated Iranian market and by creation of any block in way of the JCPOA, continuity and volume of economic cooperation of Iran and China and Russia would be doubled compared to past time. Hence, through pure optimism, we should only be patient and look forward to the future to see fate of JCPOA and economy of our country
in practice that will we have an economy only based on China or we will have a modern and stable economy (in line with resistive economic policies) with strong international relations.

This article was written by Mr. Sabzalipour, the President of Iran World Trade Center and Head of Policy-Making
Council of the Resistance Economy and Private Section.
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