8 Oct 2024
Saturday 9 January 2016 - 18:26
Story Code : 196058

With friends like Saudi Arabia, US doesn't need 'enemies' like Iran

Saudi Arabia's execution of a prominent Shia cleric last week, almost certainly designed to provoke a response from Iran, indicates a growing desperation among the Saudis to demonize Tehran, as the House of Saud's grip on both its own people and the region comes under threat, historian Saeed Khan suggests.

The simmering conflict betweenSaudi Arabia and Iran exploded intoa dangerous back-and-forth game ofone-upmanship last week, afterRiyadh decided togo ahead withthe execution ofprominent Shiite cleric and vocal political activist Nimr al-Nimr.

Riyadh's move sparkedoutrage amongShiites aroundthe world, especially inIran, where Shia Islam predominates. The explosion ofanger resulted inprotesters inTehran storming the Saudi Embassy and setting it onfire, leading Riyadh tosever all diplomatic ties withIran, and Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Sudan and Djibouti soon followingsuit, recalling their ambassadors. The diplomatic row escalated despiteIranian President Hassan Rouhani's attempts tocalm the situation byvowing that the Embassy attackers would be found and prosecuted.

Late last week, Tehran accused Riyadh offurther escalating the conflict, followingreports that the Iranian Embassy inthe Yemeni capital ofSanaa (presently being bombed bya Saudi-led coalition looking torestore its puppet government) had been struck bySaudi Air Force planes, resulting indamage tothe compound and the injury ofan embassy guard.

Commenting onthe situation ina recent articleforthe US business publication Quartz, Saeed Khan, a historian and lecturer atMichigan's Wayne State University, suggests that Riyadh's decision toexecute al-Nimr was a deliberate strategy, one intended toprovoke Tehran militarily, and based onthe Saudis' growing desperation athome and abroad.
"Each act ofincitement," Khan writes, "including Saudi Arabia's allegedly deliberate targeting ofthe Iranian Embassy inSanaa, Yemen, is further indication ofRiyadh's desperation todemonize Tehran inthe court ofworld opinion." Unfortunately forthe Saudis, this "is an exercise infutility, and one that casts doubt overthe kingdom's own stability and sensibility. The United States' longtime ally is losing its iron-fisted grip overboth its people and the region."


However, the historian warns, this loss ofcontrol, "coupled withSaudi Arabia's staggering arsenal and unprincipled ruling ideology, makes the kingdom incredibly dangerous arguably more so thaninfamous Axis ofEvil member Iran."

"Saudi Arabia contends that its provocations ofIran are a principled and urgent rejoinder toa dangerous sectarian rival. But the reality is that the kingdom seeks todistract the international community fromits own significant internal weaknesses."

Economic Troubles


These, according toKhan, include the fact that Saudi Arabia "is indire economic straits. In 2015, it ran a budget deficit approaching $100 billion, and is ontrack foran $80 billion shortfall this year. Riyadh's decision toboost oil production toenervate competitors likeIran and shale oil producers has driven the price ofcrude oil downsharply, wrecking its own financial profile" inthe process.

Recalling the collapse ofglobal oil prices overthe last year, the historian emphasizes that "for a country withan oil sector that comprises 75% ofits budget revenues, this loss ofincome has a serious impact. The kingdom has announced unprecedented austerity measures, including a value-added tax, and has raised the price ofgas inthe country by50%."

Iran Nuclear Deal Hits Riyadh Where It Hurts

As forSaudi Arabia's conflict withIran, its regional geopolitical and potential economic rival, it didn't come outof the blue, Khan recalls.

"During the precarious negotiations ofthe P5+1 nuclear deal, Saudi Arabia told anyone who would listen that Iran was unreliable, untrustworthy, and inherently bellicose. Much toRiyadh's chagrin, however, Iran has complied withmajor provisions ofthe agreement, aswith its recent shipment of25,000 pounds ofenriched uranium toRussia."

Moreover, last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency's investigation ofIran's suspected nuclear weapons program concluded that, if such a program ever existed, it ended in2009, "expediting the lifting ofsanctions onTehran."

At the same time, Khan notes, "while Saudi Arabia persists inits campaign topaint Iran asan aggressive, expansionist regional force, the kingdom has increased its own military expenditure considerably: $11 billion inships, $1.3 billion inbombs and munitions last year," most ofthe latter purchased tostock upon stocks exhausted byits war inneighboring Yemen.
"Riyadh's defense budget is infact five times that ofIran, and the [Gulf Cooperation Council] asa whole maintains a 10:1 ratio ofmilitary expenditure overits Persian counterpart. The accumulation ofsuch a large arsenal ina tinderbox locale raises serious questions aboutwho, exactly, is the main destabilizing force inthe region."


Monarchy inCrisis?
At home, Khan points out, the stability ofthe House ofSaud's authoritarian monarchy is indanger, asKing Salman struggles "to incorporate a next generation ofSaudi royalty: The King's nephew, Mohammed bin Nayef, is the crown prince and presumptive heir tothe throne. But it is Salman's own son, Mohammed, deputy crown prince and the world's youngest defense minister atage 30, who is the country's eminence grise and successor tohis father's title."
With Mohammed bin Salman's impulsiveness and inexperience leading tothe failure ofSaudi policy inYemen, the historian notes, "Western allies and regional acolytes alike nervously consider whether Saudi Arabia will be vulnerable tomore campaigns offolly or even a palace coup, depending onwho next ascends the leadership hierarchy."


Regional Prestige Erodes, While Trust From Washington Fades

For many years, Khan recalls, "the House ofSaud has enjoyed and exploited its moniker ofGuardian ofHoly Sites," a "status [which] has tamped downcriticism bymany who fear being denied entry toMecca forthe annual religious obligation ofthe Hajj." Nonetheless, inrecent years, cracks inRiyadh's regional status have nonetheless begun toshow.

"Increasingly, dissenters have argued that Saudi Arabia has become a liability toIslam. The 'Vegasization' ofMecca, withits tall, garish buildings and luxury hotels dwarfing the Grand Mosque; the demolition ofhistorically and religiously important sites inthe city; and the debacle surrounding yet another stampede duringthe Hajj have all caused many Muslims toquestion whether staying silent onSaudi misfeasance is worth the consequences."
Ultimately, "without the presumption oflegitimacy fromthe Muslim world, the credibility ofthe Saudi regime stands onshifting sands."


In the final analysis, Khan suggests, "the kingdom's not-so-subtle implosion has important ramifications forthe region. Interestingly, it may have even overplayed its hand withthe Obama Administration. In response tothe execution ofSheikh Al-Nimr and the ensuing diplomatic downward spiral, the White House has called forboth sides toexercise restraint an interestingly neutral tack when dealing withAmerica's professed central strategic ally and another it does not have diplomatic relations with."

Commenting onthis assessment, withperhaps just a hint more optimism thanis really warranted, the historian concludes that perhaps now, "after 36 years [following Iran's Islamic Revolution], Washington is no longer interested inplacing all ofits regional strategic eggs inone basket, especially when stronger, more stable alternatives are readily available."
Ultimately, "the erosion ofreliability and judgment bythe House ofSaud exposes it asa royal family either unwilling or unable toput its house inorder. And inone ofthe world's most volatile regions, that is the most provocative act ofall," Khan concludes.



By Sputnik
https://theiranproject.com/vdciwqazvt1a3u2.ilct.html
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Abdulshaafiy
l partly agree with you.But the kingdom will remain Americas' strategic ally in the middle east,until the whole of region go to its knee for America.What is regratable though,Arab rulers dont pick lessons from yesterdays'mistakes.alas.
Abdulshaafiy
look,inspite of regional bulkanization,they could create a bigger market as a power block to burgain for more,they blinkardly refused to admit yemen to the GCC.Instead they're pounding it to ashes.what a callous human atittude!