Sputnik - The US President Donald Trump is not trying to provoke a war with Iran, but is seriously mistaken in believing he can pressure Tehran into renegotiating the 2015 nuclear agreement, former CIA case officer Philip Giraldi told Sputnik.




WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — In a speech earlier on Friday, Trump said his administrationhas decided not to recertify that Iran is in compliance with the nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Trump appeared to envisage his speech as the start of a diplomatic process to force Tehran to renegotiate the nuclear agreement, Giraldi observed.
"Trump clearly believes that applying more pressure on Iran will force it to make new concessions on ballistic missiles and on ‘interfering’ in the region, which have nothing to do with nuclear weapons," he said.


However, Trump failed to appreciate the strong convictions of leaders in Tehran and of the Iranian public on the issue, Giraldi pointed out.

The US president "is, of course, wrong in his reading of the Iranian government and people. He is demanding that they abandon what they see as vital interests in terms of Iranian national security," he said.

Although Trump did not want a war, he did not realize that his hard line against Tehran was playing into the hands of Iran’s enemies in the region and of their political allies in the United States, all of whom wanted to draw the United States into a full scale war with Iran, Giraldi warned.
"I don't think he [Trump] believes there will be a war, but he is giving the tools to the Israelis, Saudis and hawks in Congress to make that happen, which is what they fervently desire," the former CIA officer said.


Giraldi predicted that Trump’s speech would be followed by an escalation of US economic sanctions against Iranand an increased and more proactive US naval and air presence just outside Iranian territorial waters.

"I imagine that the White House would incrementally increase pressure on the Iranians if the Mullahs do not concede in the next two months through the use of sanctions and aggressive patrolling in the Straits of Hormuz," he said.
Any decision by Trump to approve a more forward presence of the US armed forces off Iranian waters would almost certainly lead to a real or alleged incident that could rapidly escalate into a serious crisis or a full-scale war, Giraldi predicted.


If the latter [US approval of aggressive patrolling in the Gulf of Hormuz region] happens, there will be an incident sure as hell that will escalate," he said.

However, there was no indication that Trump had thought through what the consequences of a war or sustained showdown with Iran would be, or how to win any full scale conflict with Tehran, Giraldi advised.

"As for what happens the day after [a war begins], I don't think he understands what winning or losing would mean in practice," he said.

Trump had given no indication that he had studied or thought about the US military’s failure to bring the ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq to a successful conclusion despite so many years of commitment to both of them, Giraldi recalled.
The president "has not grasped that we have been in Afghanistan for going on 16 years, with Iran representing a much tougher nut to crack," he said.


Trump said in his speech on Friday that he was directing his administration to work closely with Congress and US allies to address what he called the nuclear deal's "many serious flaws" so that the Iranian regime could never threaten the world with nuclear weapons.

The president also noted that Iran's nuclear agreement with the international community will be terminated if the United States cannot fix it in Congress and with its allies.

Philip Giraldi is executive director of the Council for the National Interest, a group that advocates more even-handed US government policies in the Middle East.